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Bernie Ecclestone has told the BBC that he is relying on the Crown Prince to tell him whether it is safe for the Bahrain GP to go ahead. He added that a decision would be made on Tuesday.

The mood in the country has changed into one of optimism over the last 24 hours. Protesters re-took Pearl Square after the military withdrew, and Crown Prince Salman ibn Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa has attempted to calm the situation by agreeing to talk to opposition leaders.

The Crown Prince, who is the man behind the GP and Bernie’s main point of contact, is also the Supreme Commander of the Bahraini defence force.

“He will know whether it’s safe for us to be there,” Ecclestone told the BBC. “I’ve no idea. I’m not there, so I don’t know. We won’t advise people to go unless it’s safe.”

As expressed previously on this blog, it seems that the bottom line is who blinks first in terms of a cancellation – and what the commercial implications of that will be.

While the more upbeat mood may be perfectly timed in terms of the deadline Bernie gave for the decision, there is clearly no guarantee that the situation won’t change once again, especially given the lengthy time scale involved.

Team personnel beginning heading out to the test as early as Saturday February 26, and some will still be there until as late as  Tuesday March 15, a couple of days after the race. The risks inherent in assuming now that there will be no further trouble over that 16-17 day period are pretty obvious.

Meanwhile the warnings against “non-essential” travel issued by many governments remain in place.

One report today says that the teams may not have an issue with insurance unless there is a definitive ban. However the BBC’s travel expert confirmed on TV yesterday that for most normal travel insurance – the type that many non-team personnel will have – would be invalidated if a warning was ignored.

Reports in UK newspapers this morning suggest that the teams are not keen to go. On Friday they had a two-hour meeting in Barcelona, but the politically correct view – as expressed afterwards by spokesman Christian Horner – was that it was down to FOM and the FIA.

There has no word from the FIA since Jean Todt spoke to the Irish media at an FIA safety function early last week, before the situation became more crticial. However the FIA President is presumably being kept abreast of developments by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Isa Al-Khalifa, President of the Bahrain Motor Federation. He was one of Todt’s key allies in his election campaign, helping to pull in votes from the Middle East. He was invited to host one of the first WMSC meetings under the new president, in March 2010.

Aside from Horner’s remarks, there has been no official comment either from FOTA, whose chairman Martin Whitmarsh is in an awkward position, since McLaren is 42% owned by the Bahraini government. The team is also planning a major display of historic F1 cars, as well as promotion for the MP4-12C road car, at Sakhir. Clearly the company is counting on the Middle East for a lot of sales.

Leaving aside the safety issue, there remains the question of whether it is appropriate for F1 to be in Bahrain so soon after this week’s events. It would probably be fair to assume that many sponsors will not be keen to have a high profile presence, and that entertaining of guests – at what is one of the busiest and most lucrative races of the year for the Paddock Club – may be cut back. It also remains to be seen whether the media personalities who regularly attend the race as guests of the royal family are as keen to go this year.

Meanwhile the BBC’s Jake Humphrey made the following observation on Twitter this morning: “For those asking. Just because the race goes ahead doesn’t mean the BBC have to be there. We’ll make a call, and I know what mine will be…”

Fernando Alonso was in a good mood at the end of his two-day stint of testing at Barcelona, despite Ferrari losing some time to technical gremlins today.

Despite that he still ran 90 laps and set the third best time of the day, behind Sebastian Vettel and Jaime Alguersuari.

“One of the mechanics said to me that when things go well in Barcelona, we don’t win the championship, while if we have problems here, then it’s a different story,” said Alonso. “Let’s hope that’s really the case! I still believe that, at the moment the Red Bull is the strongest car, but there are at least four other teams – us, McLaren, Mercedes and Renault – that are capable of fighting for the wins. It is always very difficult to assess the results from testing: it only takes ten kilos more or less fuel or for worn tyres to be used at any one point in the day, to make a difference that can amount to seconds.”

Alonso made some interesting comments about tyres: “Here again we saw degradation similar to what we had noticed both in Valencia and Jerez at the first two tests. If we had to race at the Catalunya Circuit tomorrow, we would need three or even four stops to finish the race, however it will not be just a case of changing the way we tackle the race, but also the entire weekend track time, from free practice through to qualifying. Tyre wear will definitely create the best overtaking opportunities. If you find yourself fighting against a driver on tyres that are at the start or the end of their stint, the performance difference could be very big, which would make for overtaking, even more definitely than using KERS and the moveable rear wing.”

Alonso didn’t want to be drawn on the Bahrain issue: “It is hard for us to state a clear cut position, because in the end we only know as much as you journalists, given we are following the situation through the media. We have to wait a few more days and then the powers that be will make a decision.”

With country after country now officially warning its citizens to avoid all but ‘essential’ travel to Bahrain, the GP has become completely untenable as there are obvious insurance issues.

With such warnings in place it would be virtually impossible for team principals and media outlets to send employees to Bahrain, and clearly there will be no spectators and no sponsor guests from outside the country. This is the age of health and safety, after all.

The bottom line is that these warnings may provide the ‘force majeure’ that allows Bernie and the curiously silent FIA to make a call while allowing the Bahrainis to save some face.

But they have to do it today, and not dick about and wait until next week. It’s clear that the longer they leave it, the worse it will be for the image of F1, which has taken a battering in recent days.

Yesterday British actor Stephen Fry wrote in a Tweet: “Can’t quite believe that with the ruthless treatment of Bahrain’s protesters Ecclestone is talking about Grand Prix prospects there.”

Bernie may take the views of a showbiz personality with a pinch of salt, but the point is that Fry has 2.2 million followers on Twitter, and he reflects the opinions of many people around the world who have little or no interest in F1 – and indeed the opinions of many F1 fans who think enough is enough.

Here’s a sampling of what governments are saying:

“US citizens are urged to remain alert to local security developments and to be vigilant regarding their personal security.”

“If travelling within Bahrain, British nationals should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and on major highways, and avoid large crowds and demonstrations.”

“Canadians are strongly advised to maintain a high level of vigilance and personal security awareness at all times. Caution should be particularly exercised in areas known to be frequented by foreigners.”

“Australians in Bahrain should exercise extreme caution and minimise their travel around the island. The situation in Bahrain remains volatile with reports that the Army has used lethal force against demonstrators. Further demonstrations are likely to occur in the coming days and could turn violent.”

Both the UK and US governments have tonight advised citizens to avoid all but essential travel to Bahrain, and other countries have followed suit, including Italy, France and Australia.

The US advice runs until at least March 18, while the British is indefinite.

In the light of that one would hope that Bernie Ecclestone and the FIA do not prevaricate any further about cancelling the race before our sport loses any more credibility. And the legal and insurance implications of ignoring such official advice are pretty obvious…

The British advice reads as follows:

“We advise against all but essential travel to Bahrain until further notice.

“Following violence over recent days, and most recently on the evening of 18 February, we advise British nationals to avoid all but essential travel to Bahrain.

“We also advise British nationals currently in Bahrain to monitor the media, to limit travel around the island to essential journeys only, and not to go out when demonstrations are taking place.  If travelling within Bahrain, British nationals should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and on major highways, and avoid large crowds and demonstrations.  The airport remains open and transiting through the airport is unaffected by this advice.”

Meanwhile the US Department of State said:

“The U.S. Department of State alerts U.S. citizens to the potential for ongoing political and social unrest in Bahrain. We urge U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel to Bahrain at this time. There are confirmed reports of violent clashes including weapons fired between protestors and security forces in various parts of the city. Spontaneous demonstrations and violence are expected throughout the next several days. There is no indication that westerners are being threatened or targeted. This Travel Alert expires on March 18, 2011.

“Demonstrations have degenerated on several occasions into violent clashes between police and protesters, resulting in injuries. While demonstrations have not been directed toward Westerners, U.S. citizens are urged to remain alert to local security developments and to be vigilant regarding their personal security. The U.S. Department of State strongly urges U.S. citizens to avoid all demonstrations, as even peaceful ones can quickly become unruly and a foreigner could become a target of harassment or worse.”

Bernie Ecclestone appears to have moved into damage limitation mode after his controversial downplaying of the Bahrain situation in a BBC interview at lunchtime.

His comments became public just before a second wave of violence erupted in Bahrain as police moved in on marchers. This afternoon in a second conversation with the BBC he was more cautious.

“I don’t know what has happened this afternoon because I’ve been travelling but from what I’ve been told it’s a bit different to this morning because of this funeral that’s gone on which is what you would expect I suppose.”

He was then asked if he feared that the race would be cancelled.

“I don’t fear anything, I just think things have changed and that we should wait and see over the weekend exactly what changes there have been.”

Speaking to the Press Association, Bernie also said his earlier source was his GP2 TV crew.

“Two of my guys were there and they said they were looking out of their hotel window and that they saw a group of people supporting the king, with nobody causing any trouble. They said that all was quiet, that one of the main roads that was closed was now open again, and that was more or less it.

“They did say they would have to wait until later on today because of the funerals taking place, and that they did not know what the position would be until after that. So when I made my earlier statement it was based on the information I had at that time, as opposed to what is happening.”

Ecclestone told PA that we now have to wait: “From a realistic point of view it appears that things are changing hourly. I feel the most important thing now is to wait until after the weekend, to see what happens over the next few days, and then make a decision next Tuesday or Wednesday.”

Colin Kolles says that Tonio Liuzzi is a “strong contender” for the HRT seat as the Italian prepares to test the team’s 2010 car at Barcelona tomorrow.

HRT is obviously looking for a driver with money, and it’s not yet clear whether Liuzzi has access to any funding.

Koless said in a team statement: “As I always said our target is to get the best possible package. Tonio is a strong contender for the second seat given that he has a lot of experience in Formula One. We hope his comments and feedback will help the team to progress in the right direction”.

“I am happy to be back in a car again here in Barcelona for the upcoming test,” said Liuzzi. “Hispania Racing is a team with potential that can grow in the future and could have a good package for the season with the new car. There is still a lot to do because we are starting tomorrow with the first test, but there will be a lot to come. I am sure it will be a good day and I am looking forward to the next step”.

Bernie Ecclestone has given an extraordinary interview to BBC Radio that could turn into a PR disaster both for the commercial rights holder and the sport itself.

Having indicated yesterday that a cancellation of the Bahrain GP looked likely, he took a different view today, saying that his people on the ground there have told him that the situation has improved.

He also said that had there been a decision today, he would not have cancelled the GP2 Asia race.

Ecclestone’s conversation with the BBC’s Dan Roan – who at times seemed to barely believe what he was hearing – is sure to attract wide coverage. It does not paint him in a very good light at a time when many voices are calling for an immediate cancellation.

Asked by Roan for his views, Bernie said: “I haven’t spoken to anybody in the crown prince’s office this morning, but I spoke to our people who are there. And as you know we pulled the GP2 race. It’s the Asian series, so it’s not terribly important, and it doesn’t give a bad message to anybody, and we don’t want to take any chances. And that was yesterday we decided to do that.

“Probably today if we had to make the decision on the information I’ve got, we wouldn’t do that. But anyway it seems as if – they say – it’s quiet, no big problems.

“Now, they’re there. I don’t know if I was there or you were there we’d say there are problems, I’ve no idea. But that’s what our people said. I’m more hopeful today than I was yesterday.”

Asked when there might be a decision, Ecclestone said: “Middle of next week, I suppose.”

Quizzed on the commercial implications, he said: “We haven’t thought about that. It’s not good because TV companies have scheduled to broadcast the race, so it’s better than it happens than not.”

Roan asked about the bad PR the sport might get if it was seen to visit a country where there were issues with democracy.

“It seems as if people thought it was democratic a few weeks ago. Let’s wait and see, because we don’t know what the protesting is really about. We’ve never, ever, ever been involved in religion or politics. We don’t make decisions based on those things.”

In reference to the 1985 Belgian GP – postponed for four months after the track broke up – Ecclestone hinted for the first time that he might be able to find a new date.

“We scheduled that later. We may be able to do the same with this one. I hope we don’t have to do anything, I hope things will just carry on as normal. Obviously some people were killed, nobody’s happy with that, I’m quite sure.

“Let’s hope that this all blows away. In these parts there’s always been skirmishes. Perhaps it’s a bit more than that.”

You can hear it for yourself here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9401826.stm

The Lotus v Lotus row has flared up again after stories emerged this week with Proton suggesting that Tony Fernandes had quoted large sums of money to end the dispute.

Team Lotus issued a statement today which went into the matter in some detail. It’s an intriguing document, so rather than dig a few quotes out I’d thought I’d leave it as is. Read on…

Team Lotus has today issued a response to the statement made by Proton yesterday (17^th February) concerning the ongoing disagreement between 1Malaysia Racing Team (1MRT) and Proton / Group Lotus. The statement contained a number of factual errors that are at best misleading and at worst straight lies. The case concerns the unlawful termination of 1MRT’s licence to use the Lotus Racing name and Team Lotus Ventures’ rightful ownership and usage of the Team Lotus name in Formula One.

Proton’s statement contains a number of points that are designed to paint a very negative picture of the shareholders and founders of 1MRT and to cloud the truth ahead of the court case between 1MRT and Group Lotus, beginning in London on 21^st March:

– Proton has now stated for the first time that 1MRT could have remedied the breaches in the licence agreement and continued to use the Lotus Racing name in 2011. None of this is true and is in direct contradiction to the reasons given at the time for termination of the Licence which said that the breaches alleged were not capable of remedy.

Additionally, in a number of recent media articles it has become clear that the Renault F1 team were working on black and gold livery designs for their 2011 car in August 2010, well  before the licence allowing 1MRT to use the Lotus Racing name was terminated. The only possible reason this livery was being planned was to promote Renault F1’s sponsorship with Lotus Cars, using a classic Team Lotus F1 livery to cement their brands’ relationship in the public arena.

This begs the obvious question – If Proton were happy to allow 1MRT to continue to operate under the Licence and use the Lotus name, why were their employees at Group Lotus working with Renault F1 arranging a sponsorship deal which was in direct contravention of the exclusive licence given to 1MRT and using a livery so obviously owned by Team Lotus Ventures and not Group Lotus.

Unfortunately Proton’s assertion that 1MRT could have continued to use the Lotus Racing name in 2011 is made to avoid the obvious conclusion that Group Lotus was itself in fundamental breach of the 1MRT licence, as is proved by their own partners at Renault F1 telling the truth about when they started working with Group Lotus on their proposed sponsorship deal. Fundamentally Proton made it very clear that they no longer wanted to work with 1MRT and the facts of this will be borne out in the upcoming court case.

– Reference is also made to the sum of money offered to 1MRT for the Team Lotus name, suggesting that 1MRT shareholders were making unreasonable compensation demands of Proton. However, what Proton fails to mention is that the vast majority of the compensation sought by 1MRT was to cover the loss of FOM revenue awarded to the team for their efforts on track in 2010. 1MRT asked Proton to indemnify them against the potential loss of prize money from FOM which would have resulted from 1MRT having to change its chassis name. The compensation sums being discussed for 1MRT leaving aside the FOM revenue were not overly generous, which is specifically why Proton has not included that in their statement yesterday. With the FOM revenue included the sums are reasonable –  without referring to it Proton are able to paint 1MRT as greedy which is why they are deliberately excluding that key point.

1MRT shareholders and fellow Team Lotus founders Kamarudin Meranun and SM Nasarudin gave their thoughts: “It is obviously disappointing to see Proton issue yet more downright lies ahead of the court case in London on 21^st March. It would appear that they are becoming desperate because they are now contradicting themselves in the public arena, for example now saying they would have allowed us to continue using the Lotus Racing name  and that the alleged breaches of the trade mark licence were capable of remedy, and are trying whatever they can to force us to bend to their will. We have invested a considerable amount of time and our own personal money in Team Lotus and we are seeing the fruits of that investment begin to blossom on and off track.”

Kamarudin Meranun added: “When we first started our F1 program it was intended to be a Malaysian national project, one that truly reflected the government’s call for 1Malaysia. We wanted to use a combination of the skills and experience of the government, GLC and private enterprise to create something truly spectacular. This has not turned out to be the case as we are now carrying the hopes of the nation on our own. Proton’s involvement with us was intended to help them turnaround the company and give the brand a global platform without any major financial risk on their part. We now see that they have taken on a much greater risk by guaranteeing the loan Group Lotus needs to fund its plans and they have therefore left themselves open to far greater financial exposure.

“We have put out own money into Team Lotus and have taken on all the risk ourselves. Our counterparts at Proton are using Malaysian tax payers’ money to take a massive corporate gamble on the future of Group Lotus. Some basic financial facts bear this out – the interest servicing the proposed loan amount of more than RM 2billion, excluding capital repayment, is equivalent to the profit Proton made last year, just over RM 200 million. This means Proton is indirectly funding the entire plan themselves which is itself a hugely risky strategy. This is not just my personal view, it is also a view that has been shared in public by high profile members of the global financial markets who see the folly of these plans and are questioning the likelihood of its success.

“With their unlawful termination of our contract and their ongoing harassment of us in the public arena Proton is asking us to incur substantial losses and step away from our investment meekly and without a fight. I hope CEO Syed would do the same and be accountable for his actions in front of the nation if his overly ambitious plan for Group Lotus fails.

“My conscience on this matter is clear. In this web of fitnah I leave my fate in Allah’s hands because the truth will prevail. Inshallah we will overcome these challenges.”

Renault veteran Bob Bell is to join Mercedes GP as technical director from April 1, the team announced this morning.

Bell took over more of an administrative role at Renault after the departure of Flavio Briatore, serving as team principal at one stage. He left the team last year, and has been below the radar ever since.

Mercedes says that his role “will primarily be based at the team’s factory in Brackley with overall responsibility for the technical operations of the chassis group. Bob’s appointment will allow Ross Brawn greater freedom to oversee the full programme between the team’s chassis group in Brackley and the engine group at Mercedes-Benz HighPerformanceEngines in Brixworth.”

Team principal Brawn said: “Bob’s appointment is a key step in the strengthening of our excellent technical team and we are pleased to have recruited one of the most experienced engineers in the sport. Bob will be an important asset to our team, bringing with him a wealth of Formula One knowledge and championship-winning experience, and we look forward to welcoming him at the start of April.”

Bell added: “It will be a privilege to be a part of such a strong and determined organisation.”

Bell started his career with McLaren in 1982, and had spells at Benetton and Jordan before making his name with Renault, where he was a key part of the 2005 and 2006 title campaigns.

While Bernie Ecclestone and the FIA seem prepared to sit and wait for the situation in Bahrain to improve, many fans have already come to the conclusion that the race should not go ahead.

Some have been contacting drivers and team bosses via Twitter, urging them to boycott the GP.

In an informal debate on my Twitter feed last night it was apparent how strongly many people felt about the issue. This is not a scientific poll, but it gives an indication of feelings out there – and these are racing fans who have been waiting months for the start of the season, people who love our sport. Here is a sample of replies I received:

Ecclestone dropped races in Europe to get to those countries… Hopes it backfires on him now

Wonder what it’s like to be Bernie and suddenly realize you don’t control the world.

As a fan of 25 years now, I wanted the race cancelled yesterday. No fan in their right mind should want it to go ahead.

Cancel Bahrain, side with those against oppression and eat the freight costs.

If it goes ahead I for one won’t have anything to do with it. There are, from my perspective as a fan, 19 races this season.

They need to boycott it, not just for safety but to back the protest. Can’t be seen to agree with what’s happened by going

It should be cancelled. Lives are more important than some race.

If it goes ahead people will say that f1 stands with dictators… Not the best legacy.

People seem to overlook that F1 is a sport/entertainment, first. What’s happening in Bahrain is real life.

I haven’t missed a GP in over ten years, but why an earth anyone wants this one to go ahead now is beyond me. zero perspective.

As much as I am looking forward to the season start, I can wait for Aussie GP. Just skip Bahrain GP.

The F1 fans & staff, teams, etc. Would be prime targets for those wanting a statement. Also would require lots of govt resources.

Should be cancelled now. No point waiting. Shouldn’t hold a GP in a country that kills it’s own people

Having a race possible, because the authorities have cracked down violently in protesters, isn’t really a good advert

If Bahrain GP goes ahead, despite our passion for F1 I think our household will boycott. Protestors is a shame, but gov’ worse

I hope Bahrain GP is canceled. Fan of 25 years and eager for start of season, but I don’t want innocent people to get hurt.

It can’t go ahead. Would be completely insane to go ahead with it

I’m passionate about F1 but no-one seems to question whether its appropriate to go to Bahrain, not just safe.

There were other views, and some respondents agreed that Ecclestone should wait a few days. One guy – a Mercedes GP employee – accused fans of hypocrisy in that they were happy to watch the Bahrain race last year.

Ecclestone’s comments yesterday – he even suggested that people shouldn’t book their travel – were a clear indication that he expects to have to cancel the race eventually. It seems to me that by doing it sooner rather than later he will do the sport a big favour. The longer he leaves it, the more it will appear to the outside world that F1 has been made the call only as a last resort.